Monday, May 20, 2019

Too Few Hypotheses

A hypothesis is a guess you plan on testing. When planning for the future you should make an effort to list all possible outcomes and assign them with a reasonable probability. Try to avoid rounding unlikely outcomes to zero, see above. It is not uncommon for people consider only one possibility and dismiss the rest.  Assigning even a small chance (but not zero) to other events would make for a much more realistic analysis.   

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